17-17 C. Grunspan, R. Perez-Marco

Double spend races (866K, LaTeX) Feb 9, 17

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Abstract. We correct the double spend race analysis given in Nakamoto's foundational Bitcoin article and give a closed-form formula for the probability of success of a double spend attack using the Regularized Incomplete Beta Function. We give the first proof of the exponential decay on the number of confirmations and find an asymptotic formula. Larger number of confirmations are necessary compared to those given by Nakamoto.

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