In an epidemic, whether of the flu, AIDS, or a zombie apocalype,
people become sick from contact between sick and healthy people.
This means that dydt is proportional to the product of
the number of sick and healthy people. The standard form of the
equation, which is called logistic, is
dydt=ky(1−yM)
where M is the total number of people who could get sick.
Being a separable equation, we can solve it by separation of
variables. This gives us the integral ∫Mdyy(M−y),
which can then be solved by partial
fractions. The end result is an S-shaped curve that starts by
growing exponentially and then levels off, approaching M
exponentially.
The same equation can be used to model the dynamics of a
population with limited resources. Here M represents the
"carrying capacity" of the ecosystem, that is the maximum
population that can live sustainably.